Will Atletico Madrid end up with nothing?

Atletico Madrid go to the Camp Nou tomorrow with the hope of becoming the first Spanish team other than Real Madrid or Barcelona to win La Liga since 2003-04. Atletico themselves haven't won it since 1995-96.

They only need to avoid defeat.

But should they lose, they will then travel to Lisbon the following Saturday to play city rivals Real Madrid in the Champions League final. Lose that one too and they could end up with nothing to show for their fantastic season.

Diego Costa has been the first player in ages to get close to Ronaldo and Mess's haul of goals. Koke has provided more assists than anyone bar Angel Di Maria, and Thibaut Courtois has been so good in goal that he's either going to be the starter for Chelsea or Barcelona next year.

But is this their last chance for a while to win something? Diego Simeone is a coach in demand, Costa seems set to leave along with Courtois, whose loan expires.

Unfortunately, teams who have unexpected success seem to have their best players taken from them before they get the chance to build and threaten the long-term domination of the big boys. No doubt Sevilla will have some of their player cherry-picked after their Europa League success, while Southampton seem set to lose Adam Lallana and Luke Shaw after a great Premier League campaign.

I hope Atletico win La Liga or the Champions League (or both). It's nice to see a great group of players mix it with the big spenders. And while players like Costa and Courtois may find more success in their careers, Atletico fans may not get another chance to win something for another 20 years.

Barcelona need to evolve, not completely change

Barcelona take on Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final today, and it's a coin toss over who wins the trophy. But win or lose, it's probably about time for some changes at the Catalan club. It's time for them to tweak their style, but perhaps with new players rather than a complete ideology overhaul.

The success of the Pep Guardiola era seems a long time ago. They are out of the Champions League, sit 4 points behind Atletico Madrid with 5 games left in La Liga and are still reeling from the Neymar tax scandel and 14 month transfer ban on players under 18.

But let's ignore the off the field issues and look at the team, and where they need to improve if they are going to challenge teams like Real Madrid and Bayern Munich for domestic and European honors.

Victor Valdes is done. It's a sad end to a great career with Barca, but there has always been a feeling that they could have improved in that area. Valdes is a very good 'keeper, but he's not in the top 5 in the world - he's barely in the top 5 Spanish goalies with Casillas, De Gea and Reina all arguably ahead of him. Who do they need? Maybe Thibaut Courtais from Atletico, but his parent club Chelsea are unlikely to let that happen. Or David De Gea from Manchester United - that could happen with United out of next year's Champions League.

Carlos Puyol is also retiring, and Javier Mascherano is just not a center-back.  Marc Bantra is decent, but not the man to help Gerard Pique lead that back 4 yet. Vincent Kompany is the man, but Manchester City won't sell him. Maybe Mats Hummels from Borussia Dortmund would make sense, but they probably need two defenders unless they can convert Sergio Busquets into a defender. Jordi Alba is quality, but Dani Alves is pushing on a little, so a full-back is needed too.

In midfield, Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas and Busquets are all top players, but maybe a box-to-box type guy with a little more dynamism is needed - they probably don't regret selling Yaya Toure, but they'd love to have him back.

Barca need to cash in on players like Alex Song and Alexis Sanchez in order to strengthen in other areas. They produce a load of top quality youngsters, but players like Cristian Tello and Gerard Deulofeu need to establish themselves in the first team soon, or risk becoming bench players.

Tello has slipped down the pecking order after Neymar's arrival

I'm not going to mention Lionel Messi or Neymar. The team will be built around those two for the next 5 years - and they could beat most teams (especially in La Liga) on their own. But Barca do need to build again or risk falling behind. Maybe another striker like Roberto Soldado would give them another option up front - and Spurs would probably let him go after a miserable first season in England.

Barca need to change. The tika taka style is not dead, it just needs to evolve in order for them to compete for every trophy (which they expect to do) - maybe with a new coach, but definitely with 3-4 new additions.

Who will join Real in the last 4 of the Champions League?

Real Madrid are 99% in the semi-finals after their 3-0 win in the first-leg against Borussia Dortmund, but who will join them in the last 4?

It's a sign of the times that Manchester United's draw at home against Bayern Munich is seen as 'valiant' and 'brave'. Yes, they are playing the best team in Europe who are also the defending champions, but you're in the last 8 of Europe's top competition for a reason. Geezer predicts United won't make the last 4 as they are celebrating a draw at Old Trafford. You have been there before, act like it. United won the Premier League last year - they seem to have forgotten that.

Conceding in the last minute to make it 3-1 makes Chelsea's task a lot harder, but they may make it due to Zlatan's hamstring injury. Jose Mourinho's teams are fantastic at home, but they will have to go for it early and may be helped that PSG don't look great at the back. Neither do Chelsea though, and Lucus Moura's pace will cause John Terry and Gary Cahill a lot of problems. Petr Cech has too many mistakes in him these days too, so Chelsea will probably have to score at least 3 because PSG will get one at Stamford Bridge. Jose will say something about being a 3-legged chihuahua too, and there's only so much of that one can take.

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid is very tough to call. Barcelona have the experience and Lionel Messi, but they have no defenders. With Pique out, Puyol out and Victor Valdes injured too, they will need to score at least twice, as I can't see them keeping Atletico out and, hence, advancing on away goals. Barca thrive on pressure though, so don't be surprised if they boss Atletico at the Vincente Calderon.

So it's Real, Bayern, PSG and Atletico for me. Or Chelsea and Barcelona. Put your house on it.

Just an average Clasico!

Where do you start when trying to summarize El Clasiso?

Goals, controversial penalties, the usual Sergio Ramos red card, another Messi hat-trick, more broken records? It had it all.

Ronaldo and Ramos are already complaining about the refereeing, and I hope that doesn't become the focus of the debate, but you feel it may actually aid Real, who will now feel like everyone is against them and spur them on to the title. The decisions weren't horrible, they just happen at such speed, and the referee only gets one look. He could have done with some help from his assistants, but you have to applaud the fact he was brace enough to make the big decisions. Yes, we'd love him to be right every time, but calling for technology to intervene is stupid - and an argument that's not even worth having. Even with 10 replays, it's hard to know if Cristiano was fouled outside, if the foul continued inside, if it a red card etc. The beauty of the game is the human element - so enough of that discussion.

Messi is a beast, he's so cool under pressure. Ronaldo too is on another level - he didn't have his best game, but every time he gets on the ball the excitement level builds. Bale and Neymar on the other hand aren't at that level yet. The Welshman looked a little out of his depth. Angel Di Maria took the game to Barca in a way that Bale should be doing. If Karim Benzema could have converted more than 2 of the changes Di Maria made for him then Real would have been out of sight.

Neymar prefers a broken game I think. He preys on 1 on 1 match-ups and the ability to utilize the open spaces in behind. Barca play so slow that those opportunities don't always arise in the big games. Teams now let Xavi, Iniesta and Fabregas try and pass them to death, knowing that they just need to contain Messi and they'll be ok (ok, no one can contain him, but they at least know the game plan!).

And so with Barca not really able to break Madrid down, it was left for one man to do it. Sergio Ramos. 19 red cards in La Liga, 180 yellows - impressive. But time and again he finds himself in positions he shouldn't be in. He's a fantastic player on some levels, but he commits reckless fouls and often finds himself as the last man. Foul there and quite often the red will follow. And he can't help himself. He just about nicked Neymar, but ultimately, he had no idea where the Brazilian was, and that's why he had to foul.

If Ramos stays on, Real win in my opinion. They were the better team, but Messi was the difference. Nothing phases him (apart from an Argentina shirt). The La Liga title is wide open again - and as much as we complain about Barca and Real meeting too often these days, there probably aren't two other teams in Europe that could have created the excitement of yesterday's game.

Why don't more teams 'go for it'?

Arsenal and Manchester City can have few complaints when they see they are not in the final 8 of the Champions League. Yes, there were bad decisions, penalties, red cards and chances missed, but neither team really went for it in the second leg.

You're 2-0 down on aggregate away from home against the biggest teams in Europe, and you don't change the game plan. Both Arsenal and City started with one up front and flooded the midfield. It has worked for them domestically, but they have better players than 80% of the teams in the Premier League. Man for man they can just about compete with Bayern and Barca, but at some point you have to mix it up.

Arsene Wenger and Manuel Pellegrini seemed to be want to keep it at 0-0 in the first half, with neither English team really pushing forward. In all honesty, both were lucky to be scoreless at half-time.

But if the plan (and it's worked) is to keep it at 2-0 overall with 45 minutes left, you then have to go for it. Bring another attacker on at the break, change the system, gamble.

Losing the tie over 2 legs isn't the worst thing in the world, but losing without ever really trying to win is pointless. City had more changes than Arsenal, and at least rolled the dice with 30 minutes left. Arsenal don't really have the squad (or strikers) to do it, but this is why their managers are paid the big bucks - or is that just my opinion?

And who cares if you lose 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 or 6-1? You're out of the tournament regardless, and maybe grabbing that first goal puts the cat among the pigeons and ruffles a few feathers. You're not brave, heroic or valiant losers for hanging on for a draw after losing the first leg... you're just losers.

Nothing (and everything) to lose for Arsenal and Manchester City

Arsenal and Manchester City both lost 2-0 in the Champions League this week in spookily similar games - a good first half, man sent off, late goal etc. There's no shame in losing to Bayern Munich or Barcelona, and in some ways it may help Arsenal and City.

They now have nothing to lose in the away legs - win and it's a famous success against all the odds. Lose and you can focus on the league. City are still in both cups, but Arsenal would only have the title to play for, and with their thin squad, it may help.

Chelsea have a slightly easier tie against Galatasary, and Jose Mourinho will seems to have a knack of getting it done in the Champions League. He'd love to win it with Chelsea - mainly as it hurt him to see Roberto Di Matteo win something at Chelsea before he did. Jose is petty like that, we all know he is. He couldn't congratulate Rafa Benitez for winning the Europa League, even though he knows deep down that Rafa did well.

And so this weekend in the Premier League may give us an indication of how teams will react after tough results in Europe. The Europa League may prove damaging for Spurs (in trying to make 4th), but more for Swansea (in the relegation scrap). Europe can be too much for smaller teams, it just stretches the squad to breaking point.

But for Arsenal and City, home games against Sunderland and Stoke are must wins. Lose at this stage and the season begins to unravel. Win and they can really focus on topping the table. For Arsenal more that City, a loss at this stage would be a disaster - and potentially kill the tiny bit of confidence they have left.

Some people shouldn't comment after a shock result

Barcelona lost. They are now joint top with Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid just 3 points behind. The Catalans have won 13 of 15. They lost a game, and it coincided with Lionel Messi not playing. Queue stupid Messi/Ronaldo comparisons, memes, drama, overreaction.

It's the end of the world for Barcelona if you read too much online. Barca are nothing without Messi, Real are still lions even when Cristiano is injured because they now have Gareth Bale.

One loss. All those World Cup winners, European Champions, league winners and some of the best players of their generation are nothing without Messi. Comparing Neymar to Bale? You deserve to be shot.

Twitter, Facebook etc, are great socila media tools, but there is a reason some people don't deserve to be heard. If you don't know anything about football, please don't comment. It just makes you look stupid.

Congrats to the Welshman on his hat-trick. Let's not forget it came against a team in the bottom 3 of La Liga. A great achievement, and hopefully he'll encourage more talent to experience football abroad.

***

Liverpool and Manchester United are done, Arsenal are battling Chelsea and Manchester City for the title. This may prove to be true in January of February, but let's just enjoy a team and a player (Mr. Aaron Ramsey) playing some great stuff. City also look good and are scoring loads of goals. Both City and Arsenal are making the others look bad, but no-one in the top 8 is out of it yet - Newcastle and Southampton may not last with the big boys, but there's real competition this year, and that's something to be enjoyed.

Fulham sacked Martin Jol after their shocking display at West Ham. Some managers get a rough deal when they are fired so early in a season, but the Cottagers were awful against the Hammers. Carlton Cole scored. While the criticism around him is harsh, you know you're in trouble when he scores. West Ham could have had 6, and that's saying something for a team that has struggled to score goals all season. Fulham were lucky to get 0 - they didn't have a shot in the game that troubled the keeper.

***

Bayern and PSG are both still unbeaten. I'll take the Germans lasting longer in that competition, but I'll probably enjoy watching PSG more. Zlatan makes me smile. He loves the game, and does things that you should pay money to go and see. Bayern dominate teams and make their superiority show, and they are fun to watch, but Zlatan is worth the entrance fee on his own.

Where are we with the Champions League?

Qualification for the Champions League knockout stages is almost done. There are a few loose ends to tie up, but that's about it - and the rich are about to get richer as almost all the big teams are through to set up some fantastic ties in the last 16.

But it's all about winning the Group. Qualifying for the knockout stage is a success for some, but should be the minimal requirement for those who spend unthinkable money every year. Not just the English teams, but all the big boys have splashed out, and if you can't beat teams like Viktoria Plzen, Austria Vienna and Anderlecht, then you have bought the wrong players.

So here's the breakdown....

PSG and Atletico Madrid bossed their Groups - and that's the price teams will pay for not topping the Group. Nobody wants to play them, Barca, Real or Bayern.

Bayern have won 5 from 5, and it's hard to imagine them not beating Manchester City at home in two weeks. City are through too, which counts as a success, but they may need an easier tie to progress past the last 16 - and there are no easy ties in the knockout stages of the Champions League. City can, and will, score against any team - but they look shaky at the back. I don't agree with Kolo Toure that they will rue selling him, but they do need a quality defender - someone like Vincent Kompany, not Kolo Toure.

Manchester United are through again. Their Group wasn't easy, but they made hard work of some pretty average teams. David Moyes will be happy to advance, but I can't help thinking that United are going to get spanked by someone. Rooney is playing well, but there is nobody in the midfield that other top teams would want. In fact there's nobody in the United midfield that any other team wants on their bench.

Juventus are going to have to get something in Turkey against Galatasaray - a draw will probably do it, but Drogba and Sneider may have something to say about that. Juve look so good in Serie A, but very inconsistent in Europe. Anything but qualification will be a huge failure for them.

Chelsea are in. Basel or Shalke will join them. Who wins that Group is still to play for - but it won't be Steaua Bucharest who are now 22 games without a win in the Champions League. Basel have got 6 of their 8 points against Chelsea - what seemed an easy Group has turned vaguely interesting. Chelsea need to win it, or they will face a tough task in the knockout stages against other Group winners.

Arsenal have won 4 of their 5, yet sit just 3 points ahead of Dortmund and Napoli. Should they lose to the Italians in Naples by 3 or more, they could go out - with 12 points! Marseille have lost to everyone, so that Group of Death thing didn't quite work out. All 3 teams will still be in Europe, and I'd say the team who finishes 3rd would be favorites to win the Europa League.

Ajax stayed alive by beating Barcelona, but they will have to beat AC Milan in Italy to advance. I can't see either topping the Group as the Catalans play the already eliminated Celtic on the last Group match day.

The divide in European soccer is growing

I'd like to write about other European leagues and how great they were to watch this weekend, and there sre great teams in Serie A, La Liga, the Bundesliga and Ligue Un, but they are only getting competition in the Champions League.

Barcelona are unbeaten in the first 14 games of the season and have scored 42 goals in that time, conceding just 9 goals. Bayern beat Dortmund this weekend to extend their run to 13 unbeaten to start this season, and they have won 11 of those, letting in just 7 goals. Juve are top again in Serie A, starting 11-1-1, with Roma close, but only because they started at an unbelievable rate and have an amazing defense. PSG are also unbeaten, topping Ligue Un on 34 points from 14. Lille are second, rivaling Roma for tightest defense, conceding just 4 in 14.

So there is somewhat of a story there, but it's no surprise really. The top teams just get stronger and the competition gets weaker. Every major league in Europe, apart from England, still has at least one unbeaten team with about a third of the season gone. That may be great for stats and records, but there is a real gulf in class among the teams now, and it's not great to watch - teams are seeing a 2-0 loss as an acceptable result, because Barca, Real, Bayern and PSG are putting 4,5, 6 or 7 past teams. And that leads me into the Premier League - Man City have put 7 past Norwich and now 6 past Spurs, and Tottenham spent about $150 million this off-season. What hope do other teams have of competing if City can smash 6 past a team who were tipped for the top 4?

The gulf is growing, and not in a good way people. That European Super League we all dread may actually make the domestic season better - but that's another discussion.

***

So City, Chelsea and Arsenal all had pretty easy wins this weekend. Games that had the potential to trip them up. They look like the strongest three teams in the division. Liverpool are close, but they're pretty evenly matched up with Manchester United this season. Spurs don't look like they are going to make the top 4 again, but they still have a chance to crack it - they just need to learn to defend, and to get some supply to a striker that cost a huge chunk of that Gareth Bale money.

The Merseyside derby was fantastic. Lead changes, great goals, a yellow that should have been a red, and that man again....Romelu Lukaku. Yes, I could have said Luis Suarez, and he deserve s a mention, but the young Belgian is an absolute beast. He is the ultimate lone striker. Big, strong, good in the air, quick, can finish and is just 20! But lest we forget, Chelsea own him. So Everton's shot a the top 4 is realistic, but they won't find another Lukaku next year, and Chelsea won't loan him out again.

West Ham and Fulham are in trouble. Both teams look weak, and their game next week is a real 6-pointer. Neither team is playing well, and the excuses given by Martin Jol and Sam Allardyce are not enough anymore. West Ham need Carroll back, but to expect him to come in and score 15+ in the second half of the season is unrealistic. Fulham can't defend right now, and as good as he is when they win, Berbatov becomes a liability when they're behind.

Some rich league football to keep us entertained this week - so we don't need to worry about the little teams too much. 

The Champions League format needs to change

We're not going back to the old European Cup, but let's mix it up a bit

Play knockout games, Group stages are just a way to make money

Atletico, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City are into the last 16. Real Madrid, Chelsea and PSG are one point away, so I'll gamble and say that's 7 in with 9 still to be decided.

My bet would be Manchester United, Bayer Leverkeusen, Juventus, Benfica, Shalke, AC Milan, Zenit St Petersburg, Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal.

I'm bound to be wrong on one or two, but let's play the hypothetical game for a minute.

Those 16 would make up some fantastic knockout ties, but most football fans would probably have picked at least 12 of those 16 to qualify. So it makes me think again about the validity of the group stages, and whether they are just a way for UEFA to really coin in the TV money. We all know it's true, but it's such a long, drawn-out competition that maybe it needs to be reduced so that we can get the interest back in every game. Group stages are just a way of ensuring every team gets on TV, earns some money and showcases their best players for the bigger teams to buy the next season.

Barcelona v AC Milan was exciting to watch, as was Real Madrid v Juventus, but these massive ties don't have the same significance or importance when they could happen 4 times a season. Let them slug it out once (well twice as the home and away legs are still a factor), and the winner advances.

Oh, but then we won't see Messi v Balotelli or Ronaldo v Pirlo in the latter stages - sure we will, just seed the teams from 1 to 32, It may not be the Champions 'League' anymore, but it gives the smaller teams a chance to progress, places some importance on every game and doesn't just keep lining the pockets of the bigger teams.

Oh, I'm suggesting going back to the old European Cup when the Champions of each league played each other? Yes, and no. Sepp Blatter can keep the money from having 4 English teams, 4 Spanish, Bayern, PSG etc, but we won't have to endure months of games that lead us to the same end - and it creates a fairer system where smaller teams can advance, because ask a Milan fan now about that epic tie with Barcelona in the Champions League, and he/she will say, "When? In 2013, 12, 11, 06, 04?" Or something like that in Italian!

Are aging defenses key to El Clasico?

Messi and Ronaldo, Bale and Neymar, Isco and Iniesta.

We won’t be able to take our eyes of El Clasico tomorrow at 5pm, but as good as the attacking talent is, maybe it’s time to consider the decline of both teams defensively.

Sergio Ramos and Pepe could start for Real. I’ve made my feelings known on Pepe, but Sergio Ramos is just as much of a liability defensively. He makes rash choices, stands off Messi too far, then gets too close and fouls. Pepe just kicks people and complains. With Iker Casillas still sitting on the bench (he must have done something we haven’t heard about), Diego Lopez will continue in goal – I can’t work him out, but he seems very average to me.

But Barca have issues at the back too. Gerard Pique looks likely to miss out with a hamstring injury, with Mr. Universe Carlos Puyol coming in. He makes you feel good about how you look, but he’s been a beast in the past. However, he’s 35 and not been playing much – pair that with the ticking time bomb that is Javier Mascherano and there’s trouble.

So basically, there are a lot of goals due tomorrow. Both teams have amazing attacking players who we don’t need to discuss, and they are playing against two defenses* that really aren’t up to the top level of world football – it’s amazing to even consider that seeing as Mascherano is Argentina captain and Ramos and Puyol are World Cup winners. They have been great players, but Busquets, Isco, Alonso and Xavi can’t protect their back lines for much longer.

Luckily it's at the Nou Camp, otherwise I'd be predicting a last minute penalty for Real to win.


*defense/defence - it depends where you live!

Arsenal v Dortmund or Milan v Barca - Dilemma

Another great day in the Champions League - and poses the question, what game to watch?

Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund jumps out as both teams are performing well domestically and not just getting results, but playing the type of football we all love to see. Dortmund are the only team I have seen recently that could live with Bayern. They don't have the consistency or overall quality, but they are really well coached, exciting and full of great individual talent.

Arsenal are a team that most of us loved to see fail, but by the same token, are a story of resurrection that we can't take our eyes off. Wenger was done, fans wanted him out and players were beginning to question him. But in came Mesut Ozil, something clicked and suddenly they are top of the league and pretty sure to reach the knockout stages should they win tonight.

My favorite story is Aaron Ramsey. He's 22, suffered a horrific injury against Stoke and is now displaying some great form, putting him up there with Ozil as one of the best midfielders in the league. People forget he's still a young guy and has so much potential. The abuse he got coming back from that injury was harsh, and I'm glad he's showing his true quality.

And so to Milan v Barca. The Champions League is the only real test for the Catalans. Yes, they play Real Madrid this weekend, and Atletico have started well in La Liga this season. But games like this bring out the best in Xavi, Iniesta and Messi. It's also a big test of Neymar. He's started well domestically, but we'll see if he's up to Champions League standard later. Of course I think he is, but I was fooled by Robinho before!

Milan are a mystery to me. Great one week, horrible the next. They have good players, but I still can't get past the fact they let Pirlo go...and to Juventus!

There's also Marseille v Napoli, Shalke v Chelsea and Celtic v Ajax to keep us entertained today - plus 3 other games for the DVR to take care of. Enjoy, as the winter break isn't too far away.

Celtic contact UEFA ahead of Barcelona game

With no Messi and being away from home, they may only get one!

Arsenal v Napoli is the pick - roll that music

Rafa against Arsene should test two great managers, with a win for either taking them pretty close to qualifying for the knock out stages. Two wins from two for either would mean 6 points, and a great chance of getting the 9 or 10 you need to progress.

I'm sure some of you stopped reading when I said Rafa was a great manager. But it's true. Look at the stats. He wins. Yes, he's gone to some clubs where it was already set up for him to win, but Rafa has won trophies across Europe and deserves respect. He's a bit of a prat, but he's a good manager, you can't argue with that.

Arsenal v Napoli should be a fun tie. I don't think either are great defensively, but both have attacking players that could grace any pitch.

Milan v Ajax should be another good tie, but Milan should prove too strong. Ajax unfortunately seem to get purged too often, and although they replenish the talent, they can't quite keep up.

Celtic v Barcelona is big for Celtic. There is noise being made that they have a chance with Messi out, but let's be honest; Xavi, Fabregas, Neymar, Iniesta etc. can handle whatever Celtic have. The crowd and atmosphere will help, but Samaras and Commons are good for a one-off, nothing more.

Porto against Atletico, Dortmund/Marseille and Steaua v Chelsea too - can't wait.

Roll the music, it's Champions League week. Enjoy.

Neymar may want to remind himself of this

Neymar's start to his career has been slow by his standards. A few assists in a couple of Barcelona appearances - but seems to be fitting in nicely in a team that has won every game so far this season.

Gareth Bale's move to Real Madrid seemed to get more hype, even tho a lot of people would take the Brazilian over the Welshman.

But he's got fantastic talent, and it won't take long for him to start performing. Check out some of his goals on the Internet, or just watch this Bergkamp-esqe goal from his days with Santos.

UPDATE: He scored his first Barca goal less than 3 hours after this was posted - Neymar must follow the Geezer!

Pretenders or real challengers to Bayern's Champions League title?

Bayern Munich start the defense of their Champions League title today against CSKA Moscow, in a group with Manchester City and Victoria Plzen of the Czech Republic. Bayern and City should advance, with not too many wild cards expected to get out of the group stages. But the knockout stages should be really exciting this year - the usual suspects should be joined by teams like Napoli, Athletico Madrid, PSG and Shalke 04.

Napoli have the toughest group, with Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Marseille, but they have looked fantastic in Serie A so far, with Gonzalo Higuain and Marik Hamsik bound to be a handful for any of Europe's top defenses, let alone Arsenal's.

It's hard to look past Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich, but the English teams may prefer the underdog tag after years of being the teams to beat. Juventus and Napoli have really strengthened over the summer and should compete at the latter stages, and PSG really have to reach the last 8 to even begin to justify the money they have spent.

And here's the beauty of the Champions League. All these big teams expect to advance. Their Chairmen pay huge salaries and transfer fees to reach this stage, and anything less than the knockout stages is a huge failure. But they can't all get to the last 4, and it usually means a manager will lose their job, and even more money will be thrown at the 'project' the next year.

It can't survive the way it is without someone going bust soon. But that's a story for another day.

Today, let's sit back, enjoy the music and see some top quality football. Bayern may have a tough task ahead to try and defend their title, but don't rule them out - they have to be the joint-favorites along with Barcelona, for now.

Geezer's weekend review

 So, where to start?

The Premier League is back, Manchester United are going about their business despite David Moyes' complaints about the fixture list (he's sounding like old red nose Taggart already!).

Chelsea and the 'Understated One' did their job. Spurs followed suit, with straight forward wins for Liverpool and West Ham. A few surprise results for Fulham, Everton and Southampton, but I expect teams in the so-called 'middle league' (I am coining that phrase, even if it doesn't catch on) to all take points from each other all season - so nothing is really a surprise.

Arsenal are trying to sign everyone on Monday - a little late, but i think Arsene Wenger has finally realized that it's not 2004, he can't get Henry on loan again, and his team is distinctly average. Laughing at Arsenal is easy (and I hope we continue to do so), but I did respect how they did business and tried to build a team. Unfortunately for them, the game has become so rich that they have to dig deep and buy. They were very poor on Saturday, and despite the second penalty being a terrible decision, they weren't unlucky.

***

What to say about La Liga that hasn't been said? Barcelona won 7-0, Messi was great, Neymar got an easy debut - but seriously, the Geezer could get 20+ as a striker in that team. Even Fernando Torres might get into double figures.

Real Madrid made hard work of Real Betis on Carlo Ancelotti's first game as coach. Isco looked a great signing, but he should be for almost $40 million.

***

And amongst other things.... Falcao supposedly wants out despite Monaco winning their first two games. Ibra and Laurent Blanc are struggling so far, with PSG drawing their first two games (he's off to the Premier League, trust me!). There are 5 teams in the Bundesliga who have won their first two games - no prizes for guessing that Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are two of them.

***

But regardless of my negativity about everything being predictable, it was still a great weekend. far too many games were watched, NBC made a solid start in the US and my team won - so more than a few beverages were consumed, a rendition of 'We are top of the league' was sung and everyone in the Geezer household was happy - at least until next weekend!  

Monaco's gain is La Liga's loss

So, here we go...

La Liga is about to kick-off, and no doubt there will be some thrills and spills this weekend, but you'll have to look to Ligue Un for finishing of this quality - doubt Messi, Neymar or Ronaldo has this in their locker!

Toss a coin - the La Liga Preview this year (applies for foreseeable future)

La Liga kicks-off this weekend, and it's as simple as this: Barcelona or Real Madrid? Pick one.

It's that simple. Neymar will score 25+ for Barca, Messi will probably get another 40 or more. Cristiano is going to score 50 for Real, and Ancelotti will get more from his team than Mourinho did. If they add Bale, then I think Real become favorites, but without him I would put my money on Barca.

The Spanish league just isn't that interesting. It has similar issues to the German Bundesliga in that it's very predictable who the top two will be. All-time, Real have won the league 32 times to Barcelona's 22, but Barca have been stronger in recent years.

An interesting stat to look for this year could be whether Lionel Messi becomes the record scorer in La Liga history. He currently has 215 in 245 games, which is good for 7th on the list. Di Stefano, Raul and Hugo Sanchez are still ahead of him, with Telmo Zarra leading the way with 251. It's strange to say, but I can't see Messi scoring less than 36 in the league this year - and I can't even think when someone in any of the other league's got close to that in a season.

I'm taking Barcelona this year. Other teams like Atletico Madrid and Valencia have sold their best strikers to other leagues, while the two big boys are picking off the young, emerging talent too. Sad to say, but La Liga is going to be a two-horse race for a long time to come.

Geezer of the Day

I forgot yesterday, but the Geezer of the Day is back. Today is a man who scored a hat-trick for Barcelona against Real Madrid, won the Golden Boot at the 1986 World Cup, has never been given a red or yellow card in any game, and once thought that this was a good look.