Is there a favorite in the Champions League?

Real Madrid are 1-0 up, but there are few of us who think Bayern won't score at least once in the second leg.

Chelsea are very hard to watch, but Jose Mourinho knows how to win the Champions League, and he got exactly what he wanted from the first leg.

So are the teams that were away from home in a better position than the Madrid clubs? Or is it all still very even?

Real surprised Bayern with their counterattacking approach in the first leg, but with Ronaldo at 50% and Bale sick, maybe Ancelotti did the right thing. They soaked up the pressure really well and Bayern didn't have many great chances. Gotze has one and Muller another, but they were late on once Real had to reshuffle after Pepe's injury. Cristiano had a great chance to make it 2-0, and I feel they may rue that miss. Bayern won't be as blunt again in attack at home, and one goal there could bring three. They may have to score 3 though as Bayern's defense was brutally exposed by the pace of Ronaldo, Bale and Di Maria - and you have to think they'll try and exploit that again.

It's hard to discuss the Atletico Madrid v Chelsea game without wanting to fall asleep. Chelsea played 6 at the back for most of the game and limited Atletico to deep crosses to the back post where Terry and Cahill bossed Diego Costa. Chelsea offered nothing going forward, and may as well not have played Fernando Torres up front. He gets a lot of criticism, but was so isolated he must have wondered if Jose was just hanging him out to dry. But having kept the clean sheet away, the impetus will be on Chelsea to attack at home. I don't think they will unless Eden Hazard plays. Atletico are very dangerous on the counter, but Mourinho's set-up showed that they don't have that many ideas if you get lots of men behind the ball. Expect more of the same with one goal settling the tie.

So to answer my own question, no there isn't a favorite. I predict the overall winner coming from the Real Madrid/Bayern Munich tie, but I can't even pick a winner of either semi-final.

Who will join Real in the last 4 of the Champions League?

Real Madrid are 99% in the semi-finals after their 3-0 win in the first-leg against Borussia Dortmund, but who will join them in the last 4?

It's a sign of the times that Manchester United's draw at home against Bayern Munich is seen as 'valiant' and 'brave'. Yes, they are playing the best team in Europe who are also the defending champions, but you're in the last 8 of Europe's top competition for a reason. Geezer predicts United won't make the last 4 as they are celebrating a draw at Old Trafford. You have been there before, act like it. United won the Premier League last year - they seem to have forgotten that.

Conceding in the last minute to make it 3-1 makes Chelsea's task a lot harder, but they may make it due to Zlatan's hamstring injury. Jose Mourinho's teams are fantastic at home, but they will have to go for it early and may be helped that PSG don't look great at the back. Neither do Chelsea though, and Lucus Moura's pace will cause John Terry and Gary Cahill a lot of problems. Petr Cech has too many mistakes in him these days too, so Chelsea will probably have to score at least 3 because PSG will get one at Stamford Bridge. Jose will say something about being a 3-legged chihuahua too, and there's only so much of that one can take.

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid is very tough to call. Barcelona have the experience and Lionel Messi, but they have no defenders. With Pique out, Puyol out and Victor Valdes injured too, they will need to score at least twice, as I can't see them keeping Atletico out and, hence, advancing on away goals. Barca thrive on pressure though, so don't be surprised if they boss Atletico at the Vincente Calderon.

So it's Real, Bayern, PSG and Atletico for me. Or Chelsea and Barcelona. Put your house on it.

Why don't more teams 'go for it'?

Arsenal and Manchester City can have few complaints when they see they are not in the final 8 of the Champions League. Yes, there were bad decisions, penalties, red cards and chances missed, but neither team really went for it in the second leg.

You're 2-0 down on aggregate away from home against the biggest teams in Europe, and you don't change the game plan. Both Arsenal and City started with one up front and flooded the midfield. It has worked for them domestically, but they have better players than 80% of the teams in the Premier League. Man for man they can just about compete with Bayern and Barca, but at some point you have to mix it up.

Arsene Wenger and Manuel Pellegrini seemed to be want to keep it at 0-0 in the first half, with neither English team really pushing forward. In all honesty, both were lucky to be scoreless at half-time.

But if the plan (and it's worked) is to keep it at 2-0 overall with 45 minutes left, you then have to go for it. Bring another attacker on at the break, change the system, gamble.

Losing the tie over 2 legs isn't the worst thing in the world, but losing without ever really trying to win is pointless. City had more changes than Arsenal, and at least rolled the dice with 30 minutes left. Arsenal don't really have the squad (or strikers) to do it, but this is why their managers are paid the big bucks - or is that just my opinion?

And who cares if you lose 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 or 6-1? You're out of the tournament regardless, and maybe grabbing that first goal puts the cat among the pigeons and ruffles a few feathers. You're not brave, heroic or valiant losers for hanging on for a draw after losing the first leg... you're just losers.

Arsenal and Man City need a first leg lead

To be played Feb. 18, 19, 25, 26 and March 11, 12, 18, 19

Manchester City	v	Barcelona
Olympiakos	v	Manchester United
AC Milan	v	Atletico Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen	v	Paris St Germain
Galatasaray	v	Chelsea
Schalke	v	Real Madrid
Zenit	v	Dortmund
Arsenal	v	Bayern

Who got a good draw? Who is regretting not winning their Group? And is Gonzalo Higuain still crying?!

Manchester City have a good chance against Barcelona in my opinion. Although Messi will be fit by February, so will Aguero. I think City will score home and away against Barcelona, and it will come down to who has a better defence. Kompany is the best defender on either team, although Pique runs him close. It's the others that offer opportunity, and Mascherano probably can't keep with the City players, although Martin Demichelis is a liability for City too - much depends on how few errors those two commit.

Manchester United will be happy, although David Moyes might now be. He's expected to guide his team past Olympiakos, but we all know he hasn't lived up to expectations yet.

Atletico Madrid will beat AC Milan. Why, Diego Costa is top notch. So is Super Mario, but Milan aren't playing well - although could be by February I suppose.

PSG v Leverkeusen. Have to take Zlatan, Cavani and the other superstars - especially as Manchester United put 5 past the Germans in Leverkeusen.

The Drogba tie. Galatasaray are a decent team, but Chelsea should win. But then there is the Didier Drogba factor. He'll probably score against his old team, and cry, and run to Jose Mourinho. But Chelsea are building a strong team, but they need a defender and a goalkeeper - Petr Cech isn't an accident waiting to happen, he's happened - and we're all still watching a laughing/crying.

Real will beat Schalke. Dortmund will beat Zenit. 2 easy ones!

Then there's Arsenal v Bayern Munich. A very tough draw for the English League leaders, but whoever got Bayern was going to struggle. They move the ball so quickly and a clinical. Arsenal need to bring in another striker (not a cup-tied one) and take their chances. They got schlapped by Manchester City at the weekend, but Olivier Giroud still should have had a hat-trick. He's not bad, but he doesn't finish enough key chances. If Arsenal just get one in Germany, they need to take it. Arsene Wenger will happily take any trophy this year, but Bayern are probably too strong for it to be the Champions League. The same as Manchester City, they need to be leading after the first leg.

Is it ok for Higuain to cry?

Arsenal may have lost 2-0 to Napoli last night, but they still qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League - where they will have a tough task due to finishing second in the Group (but that's another topic).

But while Arsenal were celebrating, Gonzalo Higuain was having a little cry about the 'injustice' of his team being eliminated from the competition despite winning 4 of their 6 games. It's hard not to have sympathy for the striker, but should he be crying about not reaching the last 16 of a tournament?

Maybe he was dreaming of a game against his old club Real Madrid, maybe he lost some money after betting on himself to get the first goal, or maybe he was just upset not to qualify. But crying because your team went out seems a little too much. Of course he can be upset, show some emotion and be in touch with his feelings, but it's not like they were seconds away from winning it all.

I'm being too harsh, I know. But would he cry if Rafa Benitez subbed him against Inter this weekend? Does Rafa cry everytime one of his old players scores against him or calls him the fat Spanish waiter?

People should be able to express emotions in sport, but crying over not qualifying from a Group in which one of the teams had Nicholas Bentdner in it isn't going to get you far. You should be embarrassed, not upset.

Now go and win the Europa League, get another trophy for Rafa, and then cry about it.

Who the English teams could get in the last 16

The draw for the last 16 is on Monday. This is who the English teams may play:

Manchester United will play either:

Galatasaray, Olympiakos, Schalke, Zenit St Petersburg or Milan

Chelsea will play either:

Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiakos, Zenit St Petersburg or Milan

Manchester City will play either:

Real Madrid, PSG, Dortmund, Atletico Madrid or Barcelona

Arsenal will play either:

Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid or Barcelona

Shows how much easier it looks when you finish top of the Group.

I'm working on the other possibilities, but the Geezer has been busy!