Is there a favorite in the Champions League?

Real Madrid are 1-0 up, but there are few of us who think Bayern won't score at least once in the second leg.

Chelsea are very hard to watch, but Jose Mourinho knows how to win the Champions League, and he got exactly what he wanted from the first leg.

So are the teams that were away from home in a better position than the Madrid clubs? Or is it all still very even?

Real surprised Bayern with their counterattacking approach in the first leg, but with Ronaldo at 50% and Bale sick, maybe Ancelotti did the right thing. They soaked up the pressure really well and Bayern didn't have many great chances. Gotze has one and Muller another, but they were late on once Real had to reshuffle after Pepe's injury. Cristiano had a great chance to make it 2-0, and I feel they may rue that miss. Bayern won't be as blunt again in attack at home, and one goal there could bring three. They may have to score 3 though as Bayern's defense was brutally exposed by the pace of Ronaldo, Bale and Di Maria - and you have to think they'll try and exploit that again.

It's hard to discuss the Atletico Madrid v Chelsea game without wanting to fall asleep. Chelsea played 6 at the back for most of the game and limited Atletico to deep crosses to the back post where Terry and Cahill bossed Diego Costa. Chelsea offered nothing going forward, and may as well not have played Fernando Torres up front. He gets a lot of criticism, but was so isolated he must have wondered if Jose was just hanging him out to dry. But having kept the clean sheet away, the impetus will be on Chelsea to attack at home. I don't think they will unless Eden Hazard plays. Atletico are very dangerous on the counter, but Mourinho's set-up showed that they don't have that many ideas if you get lots of men behind the ball. Expect more of the same with one goal settling the tie.

So to answer my own question, no there isn't a favorite. I predict the overall winner coming from the Real Madrid/Bayern Munich tie, but I can't even pick a winner of either semi-final.

Who will join Real in the last 4 of the Champions League?

Real Madrid are 99% in the semi-finals after their 3-0 win in the first-leg against Borussia Dortmund, but who will join them in the last 4?

It's a sign of the times that Manchester United's draw at home against Bayern Munich is seen as 'valiant' and 'brave'. Yes, they are playing the best team in Europe who are also the defending champions, but you're in the last 8 of Europe's top competition for a reason. Geezer predicts United won't make the last 4 as they are celebrating a draw at Old Trafford. You have been there before, act like it. United won the Premier League last year - they seem to have forgotten that.

Conceding in the last minute to make it 3-1 makes Chelsea's task a lot harder, but they may make it due to Zlatan's hamstring injury. Jose Mourinho's teams are fantastic at home, but they will have to go for it early and may be helped that PSG don't look great at the back. Neither do Chelsea though, and Lucus Moura's pace will cause John Terry and Gary Cahill a lot of problems. Petr Cech has too many mistakes in him these days too, so Chelsea will probably have to score at least 3 because PSG will get one at Stamford Bridge. Jose will say something about being a 3-legged chihuahua too, and there's only so much of that one can take.

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid is very tough to call. Barcelona have the experience and Lionel Messi, but they have no defenders. With Pique out, Puyol out and Victor Valdes injured too, they will need to score at least twice, as I can't see them keeping Atletico out and, hence, advancing on away goals. Barca thrive on pressure though, so don't be surprised if they boss Atletico at the Vincente Calderon.

So it's Real, Bayern, PSG and Atletico for me. Or Chelsea and Barcelona. Put your house on it.

Why don't more teams 'go for it'?

Arsenal and Manchester City can have few complaints when they see they are not in the final 8 of the Champions League. Yes, there were bad decisions, penalties, red cards and chances missed, but neither team really went for it in the second leg.

You're 2-0 down on aggregate away from home against the biggest teams in Europe, and you don't change the game plan. Both Arsenal and City started with one up front and flooded the midfield. It has worked for them domestically, but they have better players than 80% of the teams in the Premier League. Man for man they can just about compete with Bayern and Barca, but at some point you have to mix it up.

Arsene Wenger and Manuel Pellegrini seemed to be want to keep it at 0-0 in the first half, with neither English team really pushing forward. In all honesty, both were lucky to be scoreless at half-time.

But if the plan (and it's worked) is to keep it at 2-0 overall with 45 minutes left, you then have to go for it. Bring another attacker on at the break, change the system, gamble.

Losing the tie over 2 legs isn't the worst thing in the world, but losing without ever really trying to win is pointless. City had more changes than Arsenal, and at least rolled the dice with 30 minutes left. Arsenal don't really have the squad (or strikers) to do it, but this is why their managers are paid the big bucks - or is that just my opinion?

And who cares if you lose 3-1, 4-1, 5-1 or 6-1? You're out of the tournament regardless, and maybe grabbing that first goal puts the cat among the pigeons and ruffles a few feathers. You're not brave, heroic or valiant losers for hanging on for a draw after losing the first leg... you're just losers.

Arsenal and Man City need a first leg lead

To be played Feb. 18, 19, 25, 26 and March 11, 12, 18, 19

Manchester City	v	Barcelona
Olympiakos	v	Manchester United
AC Milan	v	Atletico Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen	v	Paris St Germain
Galatasaray	v	Chelsea
Schalke	v	Real Madrid
Zenit	v	Dortmund
Arsenal	v	Bayern

Who got a good draw? Who is regretting not winning their Group? And is Gonzalo Higuain still crying?!

Manchester City have a good chance against Barcelona in my opinion. Although Messi will be fit by February, so will Aguero. I think City will score home and away against Barcelona, and it will come down to who has a better defence. Kompany is the best defender on either team, although Pique runs him close. It's the others that offer opportunity, and Mascherano probably can't keep with the City players, although Martin Demichelis is a liability for City too - much depends on how few errors those two commit.

Manchester United will be happy, although David Moyes might now be. He's expected to guide his team past Olympiakos, but we all know he hasn't lived up to expectations yet.

Atletico Madrid will beat AC Milan. Why, Diego Costa is top notch. So is Super Mario, but Milan aren't playing well - although could be by February I suppose.

PSG v Leverkeusen. Have to take Zlatan, Cavani and the other superstars - especially as Manchester United put 5 past the Germans in Leverkeusen.

The Drogba tie. Galatasaray are a decent team, but Chelsea should win. But then there is the Didier Drogba factor. He'll probably score against his old team, and cry, and run to Jose Mourinho. But Chelsea are building a strong team, but they need a defender and a goalkeeper - Petr Cech isn't an accident waiting to happen, he's happened - and we're all still watching a laughing/crying.

Real will beat Schalke. Dortmund will beat Zenit. 2 easy ones!

Then there's Arsenal v Bayern Munich. A very tough draw for the English League leaders, but whoever got Bayern was going to struggle. They move the ball so quickly and a clinical. Arsenal need to bring in another striker (not a cup-tied one) and take their chances. They got schlapped by Manchester City at the weekend, but Olivier Giroud still should have had a hat-trick. He's not bad, but he doesn't finish enough key chances. If Arsenal just get one in Germany, they need to take it. Arsene Wenger will happily take any trophy this year, but Bayern are probably too strong for it to be the Champions League. The same as Manchester City, they need to be leading after the first leg.

Huge tests for Arsenal, Napoli and Leverkeusen

Is tomorrow's early Premier League game the clash of this season's top two? Or should Chelsea still be among the favorites despite their ability to ship at least 2 a game? Liverpool are still there, but may not even be the best team in their city.

Arsenal away at Manchester City this weekend is huge. City have won 7 of 7 at the Etihad and scored 29 goals in that span - that's an average of more than 4 a game, and they have just conceded 2. Arsenal's defense has been pretty solid to start the season, but they were cut apart by Napoli in the week, and you have to think that Aguero, Silva, Yaya Toure and company (not Vincent, although he's a threat at set plays) are going to give the Gunners a run for their money. Mertesacker and Koscielny have been very good this season, but City move the ball so quickly and playing on the half-turn is really not their strength. If Jenkinson plays too, I think Navas will exploit him and really test that offside trap.

But Arsenal are not 5 points clear after 15 games for no reason. Ramsey has been a beast, and Ozil creates at least one great chance per game - the key may be whether Giroud or Walcott can take that chance - Ramsey has been scoring loads, but the forwards are the players that will decide if Arsenal can maintain their push. Bendtner off the bench isn't that inspiring when you're losing.

There's a big game for Liverpool away at Spurs too. Lose and you're have to think they will slip behind Chelsea and Everton, both who have home games that they should win easily. Liverpool have failed a couple of tests so far this season, but are more than just hanging around  - Suarez is scoring so many goals that you hardly notice the injuries to Gerrard and Sturridge. However, if the Uruguayan is not firing, can anyone else take the responsibility?

Some big games for West Ham at home to Sunderland and Hull home to Stoke. All 4 of those teams need to start getting some points. More losses and some of the managers may be getting nervous - Steve Bruce is doing well at Hull right now, but they are due a bad run at some point, so need to accumulate while the going is good.

***

Roma remain unbeaten, but trail Juventus by 3 points - hard to imagine, but Juve have won 13 of 15 in Serie A, yet couldn't reach the knockout stages of the Champions League. Maybe Serie A isn't as strong as predicted it may be this year. Napoli also didn't advance in Europe, but have a huge game with Inter this weekend. Both teams need a win to stay in touch with the leaders, but the pressure will be on Napoli at home. Inter are unbeaten away, and will be looking to Rodrigo Palacio to nick one - after going out of the Champions League, Rafa Benitez can't afford to lose.

***

Fair play to Bayer Leverkeusen - they are desperately holding on to the coattails of Bayern Munich and reached the knockout stages of the Champions League in midweek. It's going to be tough for them to compete on both fronts, but it's tough for anyone against Bayern (apart from James Milner!).

Where are we with the Champions League?

Qualification for the Champions League knockout stages is almost done. There are a few loose ends to tie up, but that's about it - and the rich are about to get richer as almost all the big teams are through to set up some fantastic ties in the last 16.

But it's all about winning the Group. Qualifying for the knockout stage is a success for some, but should be the minimal requirement for those who spend unthinkable money every year. Not just the English teams, but all the big boys have splashed out, and if you can't beat teams like Viktoria Plzen, Austria Vienna and Anderlecht, then you have bought the wrong players.

So here's the breakdown....

PSG and Atletico Madrid bossed their Groups - and that's the price teams will pay for not topping the Group. Nobody wants to play them, Barca, Real or Bayern.

Bayern have won 5 from 5, and it's hard to imagine them not beating Manchester City at home in two weeks. City are through too, which counts as a success, but they may need an easier tie to progress past the last 16 - and there are no easy ties in the knockout stages of the Champions League. City can, and will, score against any team - but they look shaky at the back. I don't agree with Kolo Toure that they will rue selling him, but they do need a quality defender - someone like Vincent Kompany, not Kolo Toure.

Manchester United are through again. Their Group wasn't easy, but they made hard work of some pretty average teams. David Moyes will be happy to advance, but I can't help thinking that United are going to get spanked by someone. Rooney is playing well, but there is nobody in the midfield that other top teams would want. In fact there's nobody in the United midfield that any other team wants on their bench.

Juventus are going to have to get something in Turkey against Galatasaray - a draw will probably do it, but Drogba and Sneider may have something to say about that. Juve look so good in Serie A, but very inconsistent in Europe. Anything but qualification will be a huge failure for them.

Chelsea are in. Basel or Shalke will join them. Who wins that Group is still to play for - but it won't be Steaua Bucharest who are now 22 games without a win in the Champions League. Basel have got 6 of their 8 points against Chelsea - what seemed an easy Group has turned vaguely interesting. Chelsea need to win it, or they will face a tough task in the knockout stages against other Group winners.

Arsenal have won 4 of their 5, yet sit just 3 points ahead of Dortmund and Napoli. Should they lose to the Italians in Naples by 3 or more, they could go out - with 12 points! Marseille have lost to everyone, so that Group of Death thing didn't quite work out. All 3 teams will still be in Europe, and I'd say the team who finishes 3rd would be favorites to win the Europa League.

Ajax stayed alive by beating Barcelona, but they will have to beat AC Milan in Italy to advance. I can't see either topping the Group as the Catalans play the already eliminated Celtic on the last Group match day.

The divide in European soccer is growing

I'd like to write about other European leagues and how great they were to watch this weekend, and there sre great teams in Serie A, La Liga, the Bundesliga and Ligue Un, but they are only getting competition in the Champions League.

Barcelona are unbeaten in the first 14 games of the season and have scored 42 goals in that time, conceding just 9 goals. Bayern beat Dortmund this weekend to extend their run to 13 unbeaten to start this season, and they have won 11 of those, letting in just 7 goals. Juve are top again in Serie A, starting 11-1-1, with Roma close, but only because they started at an unbelievable rate and have an amazing defense. PSG are also unbeaten, topping Ligue Un on 34 points from 14. Lille are second, rivaling Roma for tightest defense, conceding just 4 in 14.

So there is somewhat of a story there, but it's no surprise really. The top teams just get stronger and the competition gets weaker. Every major league in Europe, apart from England, still has at least one unbeaten team with about a third of the season gone. That may be great for stats and records, but there is a real gulf in class among the teams now, and it's not great to watch - teams are seeing a 2-0 loss as an acceptable result, because Barca, Real, Bayern and PSG are putting 4,5, 6 or 7 past teams. And that leads me into the Premier League - Man City have put 7 past Norwich and now 6 past Spurs, and Tottenham spent about $150 million this off-season. What hope do other teams have of competing if City can smash 6 past a team who were tipped for the top 4?

The gulf is growing, and not in a good way people. That European Super League we all dread may actually make the domestic season better - but that's another discussion.

***

So City, Chelsea and Arsenal all had pretty easy wins this weekend. Games that had the potential to trip them up. They look like the strongest three teams in the division. Liverpool are close, but they're pretty evenly matched up with Manchester United this season. Spurs don't look like they are going to make the top 4 again, but they still have a chance to crack it - they just need to learn to defend, and to get some supply to a striker that cost a huge chunk of that Gareth Bale money.

The Merseyside derby was fantastic. Lead changes, great goals, a yellow that should have been a red, and that man again....Romelu Lukaku. Yes, I could have said Luis Suarez, and he deserve s a mention, but the young Belgian is an absolute beast. He is the ultimate lone striker. Big, strong, good in the air, quick, can finish and is just 20! But lest we forget, Chelsea own him. So Everton's shot a the top 4 is realistic, but they won't find another Lukaku next year, and Chelsea won't loan him out again.

West Ham and Fulham are in trouble. Both teams look weak, and their game next week is a real 6-pointer. Neither team is playing well, and the excuses given by Martin Jol and Sam Allardyce are not enough anymore. West Ham need Carroll back, but to expect him to come in and score 15+ in the second half of the season is unrealistic. Fulham can't defend right now, and as good as he is when they win, Berbatov becomes a liability when they're behind.

Some rich league football to keep us entertained this week - so we don't need to worry about the little teams too much. 

Huge clash in Germany; Chance to forget Milner has 44 caps

So watching Ronaldo was fantastic (by far the best player in the world right now), seeing France come back was inspiring (although many people wanted them to miss out), and some of the African qualifiers were great - but now we have the 32, it's all set. International friendlies are awful, as anyone who watched England v Germany will testify. So let's get back to some club football, see some quality, and not wonder how James Milner has 44 caps for England.

***

So Everton v Liverpool eh? Martinez v Rodgers. Personally I think Roberto is a better manager and seems to be able to get teams to actually play. He sticks to his principals and has inherited a very good Everton team - the face they have Romelu Lukaku too seems a little unfair, but so be it. Liverpool are very strong going forward, but as we saw against Arsenal, Rodgers doesn't seem to have a Plan B. If Sturridge and Suarez are not firing, Coutinho and Gerrard need to boss the game - because Jordan Henderson, Victor Moses and Joe Allen have all been poor. To say Liverpool need another striking option seems excessive at this point, but they do if they want to really contend.

Arsenal need someone other than Giroud too. A huge game at home against Southampton. It may not sound right, but they need Walcott and others to take the burden off the Frenchman (because he's not that good).

Some early relegation games loom too. Hull v Palace, Stoke v Sunderland and Cardiff v Manchester United! We're coming into a key period where teams need to win games rather than draw, and not let themselves get detached from the pack. West Ham need a win, as do Fulham, but so does everyone I suppose!

***

A repeat of last year's Champions League final in Germany this weekend. Dortmund against Bayern. First against second, with the reigning champs unbeaten, conceding just 7 goals in 12 games.  Bayern haven't lost away in the Bundesliga for 24 games, which is just unreal, but they will be without Frank Ribery who was injured for France. Everyone is injured for Dortmund, with their defense really suffering - and as no one can stop Bayern scoring, don't be surprised if Mario Gotze notches against his old team. He's bound to get a lot of abuse from the fans, and should probably avoid Jurgen Klopp screaming at him too!

***

I'm bored of La Liga. It's so early to say that, but there isn't a game that really interests me this weekend. Barca without Messi, Real without Khedira and Alonso - yeah, big losses, but those two giants have so many other players. Just means we get to see more of Neymar and Isco.

The top 5 in Serie A are breaking away too, but perhaps it's more interesting to see how bad AC Milan are. 10th after 12 games, no away wins, 19 points behind Roma already and nothing too bright on the horizon. They still have Mario tho, and he's worth admittance on his own.

Getting a little friendly celebrating that qualification

So Man City are into the knockout phases, along with Bayern, PSG and probably Real Madrid.

Don't get too carried away, no one wants to finish second, because beating Viktoria Plzen isn't that big a deal!

Arsenal v Dortmund or Milan v Barca - Dilemma

Another great day in the Champions League - and poses the question, what game to watch?

Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund jumps out as both teams are performing well domestically and not just getting results, but playing the type of football we all love to see. Dortmund are the only team I have seen recently that could live with Bayern. They don't have the consistency or overall quality, but they are really well coached, exciting and full of great individual talent.

Arsenal are a team that most of us loved to see fail, but by the same token, are a story of resurrection that we can't take our eyes off. Wenger was done, fans wanted him out and players were beginning to question him. But in came Mesut Ozil, something clicked and suddenly they are top of the league and pretty sure to reach the knockout stages should they win tonight.

My favorite story is Aaron Ramsey. He's 22, suffered a horrific injury against Stoke and is now displaying some great form, putting him up there with Ozil as one of the best midfielders in the league. People forget he's still a young guy and has so much potential. The abuse he got coming back from that injury was harsh, and I'm glad he's showing his true quality.

And so to Milan v Barca. The Champions League is the only real test for the Catalans. Yes, they play Real Madrid this weekend, and Atletico have started well in La Liga this season. But games like this bring out the best in Xavi, Iniesta and Messi. It's also a big test of Neymar. He's started well domestically, but we'll see if he's up to Champions League standard later. Of course I think he is, but I was fooled by Robinho before!

Milan are a mystery to me. Great one week, horrible the next. They have good players, but I still can't get past the fact they let Pirlo go...and to Juventus!

There's also Marseille v Napoli, Shalke v Chelsea and Celtic v Ajax to keep us entertained today - plus 3 other games for the DVR to take care of. Enjoy, as the winter break isn't too far away.

Schweinsteiger has tricks in all sports

Not only can he own you on a football pitch, but seems he could at basketball too!

Quality technique - pity he's wearing a Lebron shirt!