Armenia know the next step won't be easy

Armenia enters 2014 with its highest FIFA ranking since its inception to the governing body, but one has to wonder what this truly means for Armenian football. Though happy with a climb in the rankings from the mid 100s just a few years ago, can Armenia really consider itself an imposing opponent on the world stage?

Two impressive rounds of qualifying (Euro 2012 & WC 2014), the latest including a 4-0 win in Copenhagen over Denmark, has brought this small nation footballing respectability. With this impressive form, UEFA Champions League runner-up Borussia Dortmund spent a hefty sum of 22 million Euros on Henrikh Mkhitaryan - arguably the best footballer Armenia has ever produced.

But respectability isn't the only thing Armenians want. They are yet to qualify for the Euros or World Cup after becoming an independent state in 1991 and playing first international match in October 1992. They want to play on the big stage, but getting there isn't going to be easy.

Armenia's newest challenge sees them placed in a group with Portugal, Serbia, Denmark (again) and Albania for qualification for the 2016 European Championships. It is hard to see Armenia advancing to the "Big Show" in France, and with that comes more questions about FIFA's ranking system - How much worth is there in Armenia being ranked number 30 in the world when it has yet to qualify for a major tournament?

Today, this small nation of 3 million residents (but with a diaspora of 27 million) lost 2-0 to Russia in a friendly. A win would have helped Armenia further climb FIFA's ranking system, but is this a true indicator of how a nation compares to others? Portugal, Serbia and Denmark are all ahead of Armenia in the rankings (and France are joining the group just for fun as they qualify as hosts). Despite the tournament expanding to 24 teams, finishing in the top 2 looks like a huge ask. No group is easy, but FIFA seems to think the system gives everyone a shot. 

Sepp Blatter certainly thinks so, and with that said it is a surprise that Jack Warner hasn't gotten Trinidad and Tobago in the top 10, or a place at the Euros!!!

All Armenians know is that they'll have to do it the hard way again.  

-Aris Alpian

Then there were 32 - but not many surprises

All 32 places for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil are now taken after the play-off games were completed this week, and the field has a familiar look to it. Twenty-four of the 32 teams are same as in 2010, with the qualification process seemingly paving the way for the bigger teams to make the tournament. 

Mexico won just two of their 10 games in the final round of qualifying, yet still got another chance to make it by playing a home and home series with New Zealand, a team ranked 79 in the world (Mexico are 24). Bosnia-Herzegovina are the only debutants, with 14 of the 32 teams having reached double digits in appearances (Brazil 2014 is the 20^th World Cup). 

Although 76 different national teams have made the finals, there have only been 17 new teams since the format expanded to 32 teams in 1998, and only seven of those have made a repeat appearance. 

Only South American teams have won the tournament when it's been held in the Americas, and no team from outside of Europe or South America have ever made the final in any World Cup - so although it's great to see representation from Algeria to Australia, it's unlikely they will reach the later stages - with South Korea and the US (in 1930) the only teams from outside the traditional powerbases to even make a semi-final.

The African teams tend to vary a little, but teams from Asia, South America, North and Central America and Europe are largely the same every four years. Some bigger European nations always miss out as the region gets 13 spots for 53 nations, but it’s the World Cup and the beauty of it is seeing teams from all over the world – because there’s no other stage to potentially watch Iran against Costa Rica.

Also worth viewing on the WSJ sports section:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304607104579210260819460176

Can France do it? Will Zlatan miss out?

A World Cup with no Zlatan? Or one without Ronaldo? Add that to no Ribery, Benzema, or the crazy French.

It wouldn't be worth watching would it?

People (I'm not calling them fans) want to see the best players, but part of the drama is who is not there, and how they failed. England won their group, but still got a hard time from the media; Switzerland may be the weakest top seed, but they won their group and qualified easily; Mexico are set to be there even though they have had more chances than any other team.

But those teams will be there next summer, and no one will care how they did it. If France or Portugal are not there, you can bet people will remind them every day until the tournament ends.

I think the home teams in European qualifying will all win tonight, and while that will mean the end for Iceland, the margin of victory in the other games will determine who goes through.

France need to score early, or there will be a new generation of Ginolas and Cantonas, who are still blamed for them not making it to USA '94.

Romania got the away goal, so have a good chance to score 2 and qualify at home to Greece.

Sweden have to score 3 in my opinion as Cristiano always has a goal in him. If Portugal score, they should qualify on away goals, but Zlatan has something up his sleeve, I just know it.

I've been wrong on everything else though, so stay tuned for another 4 teams to be going to Brazil by the close of business - which 4 is anyone's guess!

Zlatan or Ronaldo - and you can't have both

So the big game tomorrow in the European playoffs for the Brazil 2014 World Cup has to be Greece v Romania. Can't wait for that one!

Then there's Portugal v Sweden. Cristiano against Zlatan. The two superstars have 48 goals between them this year, and 7 hat-tricks. With Lionel Messi injured, these two are the best two players in the game right now.

Zlatan has it all - the goals he scores are unbelievable, but his technique is phenomenal. He's such a character and has a personality that Brazil needs next summer.

Ronaldo is moody, elusive and more model than footballer. But what a footballer. He has everything, and has to be considered one of the greats of the game already - and he's only 28.

But we can't have both. Never team could win their group, although Sweden had a much tougher task after being paired with Germany. And the luck (or should we say bad luck) drew the two teams together. I wouldn't be bothered if Sweden or Portugal weren't there, but if Ronaldo and Zlatan aren't there, they will be missed.

France should beat Ukraine over two legs. They have quality at the back and in midfield, with Ukraine posing little threat in my opinion. Iceland are huge underdogs against Croatia, but they are the feel good story of European qualification. Greece and Romania is a game that doesn't excite me at all, which probably means it will be the best one. Neither team will do much in Brazil, but then I said that when Greece won the Euros in 2004!

I'm taking Sweden to win over the two legs, with Greece, Iceland and France joining them. Cristiano has it all already, and he'll sulk for a while, but then console himself with his model girlfriend, millions of dollars and addiction to sunbeds.

Lots of reasons to love the Europa League

There are 3 qualifying rounds (starting in early July), a playoff round, 12 groups of 4, a knockout stage involving 32 teams all head of a final in May - which this year takes place at Juventus' stadium.

Welcome to UEFA's Europa League.

It seems like a lot of games, but having replaced the UEFA Cup and the Cup Winners Cup, you'd have to expect that there would be an avenue for every country in Europe to be able to field a side in European club competition.

And nobody expects the teams from Andorra or San Marino to make the group stages, let alone the knockout stages. But they are entitled to get their chance.

Having played with pros who represented Wales playing for Total Network Solutions (now TNS or The New Saints), they have told me of how great the experience was, how it was their only chance to really play in big stadiums against really good, even great, players.

And it's not just great for the players, the clubs and fans get to see sides they would otherwise never face - a trip to Croatia, a Thursday night in Bilbao or a long weekend in Latvia, all sound great. I'm not saying Manchester United fans get bored of playing Barcelona or Bayern Munich, but the Champions League has become a little repetitive. And the way they're going, United may even jump at the chance of the Europa League next year!

People say Jermain Defoe loves the competition. But let's be harsh/critical/honest here - it's one of the only chances he gets to play a whole game. There are the FA Cup games, League Cup and a few substitute appearances, but not too much more these days. The Europa League gives bigger teams the chance to try out their youngsters, rehab players from injuries and get people back into form.

It's not a reserves league though. The competition is strong, with Porto, Atletico Madrid (twice) and Chelsea winning the tournament - I'm sure players like Falcao and Fernando Torres appreciate it and display the medals - and you know Rafa Benitez does.

It doesn't get the respects it deserves, and maybe the Thursday night takes its toll on teams for the following weekend, but it's interesting, compelling and exciting European football.

If only I could find somewhere to watch it!

There can only be one....or 4 of 8

FIFA posted the 4 games that will decide the final European qualifiers for next summer in Brazil.

With 9 places taken, the winners over two legs will take Europe's contingent up to 13.

According to the FIFA website...

Portugal - Sweden
Ukraine - France
Greece - Romania
Iceland - Croatia

Portugal (ranked 14), Greece (15), Croatia (18) and Ukraine (20) were the seeded teams while France(21), Sweden (25), Romania (29) and Iceland (46) were unseeded, based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking of 17 October 2013.

The home-and-away play-off matches are due to be played on 15 November and 19 November respectively.

So, who do you fancy?

I'm taking Zlatan over Cristiano. Why? I don't know, I just think Zlatan knows it's probably his last World Cup, loves it when someone has an ego to match his, and would really enjoy sticking it to Sepp Blatter and FIFA. He knows they want/need Ronaldo at the World Cup. He's such an icon of the modern game and attracts so much interest. I'd like to see both teams go, but that's the beauty of it - it's like Highlander - there can only be 1....or 4 of 8, just doesn't sound as good!

France have the quality to beat Ukraine, but I worry about them. They are so inconsistent, but Didier Deschamps has got his team together a little and playing well. Ukraine are ok, but I don't see them winning away if they need to.

Greece against Romania is probably the lease exciting tie, but I fancy Greece, even with Gerogios Samaras in the team. 

And then there's Iceland. I don't think there's a neutral out there who doesn't want them to make their first big tournament - and it has nothing to do with Croatia. I'd like to see Eidur Gudjohnsen get there - mainly because he used to play for the national team with his Dad, and has great goal celebrations.   

It's about time CONCACAF made a change

There are lots of relieved people in Mexico this morning. Thanks to some late goals for the US against Panama, Mexico still have a chance to make it to Brazil next summer.

The Mexican drama has been like one of their infamous soap operas. An overhead kick with 5 mins to go to beat Panama, an unbelievable miss by Chicharito, followed by a Graham Zuzi header for the US in stoppage time to give the Mexicans a lifeline after they lost away in Costa Rica.

Mexico have always qualified when the competition was held in the Americas (1930, 50, 62, 70, 78, 86 and 94), and no doubt will have a good following if they beat New Zealand in two-leg playoff in November.

But surely it's now time that the CONCACAF region made a change in how teams qualify - or maybe FIFA need to look at taking one of the 3 automatic places away - or at least ditch the Intercontinental playoff game.

Mexico finished 4th in a group of 6, only won 2 games, scoring just 7 goals. This is undoubtedly one of the weakest Mexican teams in recent memory - they are so bad that they can't even rough teams up like they used to.

They finished behind the US, Costa Rica and Honduras - the latter two of which are highly unlikely to make it out of the group stages in Brazil. So why should Mexico get yet another chance to go? They have been very poor and don't deserve to be at the main event. The US have a decent team, but not one you would say is going to genuinely contend at the World Cup. Jurgen Klinsmann has done a very good job, and the US have completely dominated the region, but they really should - beating teams like Antigua & Barbuda, Guatemala and Jamaica should be pretty straightforward. But you can only beat the teams put in front of you.

And Mexico couldn't.

New Zealand won 6 of 6 in their region, but they should too - Tahiti and New Caledonia aren't much of a test either.

Maybe FIFA needs to revamp the qualifying process as it seems like they want some of the same teams there at every World Cup. With the current system, the US are pretty much guaranteed to be in, and it seems Mexico are being given more chances than most to also be there.

Why is today so slow? I need more football

Some exciting qualifiers in Europe on Friday, a great comeback from Colombia to draw 3-3 with Chile, goals galore in the African playoff games, and now it's Monday.

Hurry up and be done so we can get to the big games on Tuesday.

I am a soccer junkie, I need my fix.

Without it, I feel like this...

Who else could pack their bags for Brazil?

Ethiopia play Nigeria for a place in Brazil next summer

Brazil are hosting the 20th World Cup next summer.

They qualify automatically, and have so far been joined by Japan, Australia, South Korea, Iran, Holland, Italy, Costa Rica, Argentina and the USA. 10 names are confirmed, with another 7 having the possibility of joining them today.

Belgium, Germany and Switzerland are all in if they win - and I can't see Ireland upsetting the Germans, and it's even more unlikely that the Swiss will lose to Albania.

Russia can qualify if Portugal lose to Israel - it's not worth mentioning that the Russians play Luxembourg, 3 points have never been so easy - just ask Northern Ireland...oh wait. Honduras can make it if they beat Costa Roca and Mexico don't beat Panama.

Colombia and Chile can both clinch from South America, and even if they don't do it right now, both will get it done soon.

But who does that leave?

Spain and France are going to be the top 2 in their group, and it seems likely the holders will get teh automatic place. England have 'amazingly difficult' games against Montenegro and then Poland at home if they are going to clinch the automatic place - that's in quotes because the British press would have you believe that those games at home are too much for a team that includes so-called world beaters like Rooney, Gerrard and Wilshire. Can't have it both ways unless you're the British press - at club level, the players are the best in world, but not so much once the England shirt goes on.

Plus there are so big games in Africa - Ghana against Egypt, Senegal v Ivory Coast, and underdogs Ethiopia and Burkina Faso both still have a chance to make it. It's 5 from 10 in Africa, with the second leg in November after the openers this weekend.

Ecuador, Venezuela and Uruguay seem to be fighting it out for one automatic place and the chance to play Jordan in a qualifier - can't see that qualifier being much harder than playing the Page 3 girl Jordan, so it seems like 2 of 3 from there.

But there's still loads to play for with a couple of games left - 22 names still need to be confirmed, but we'll probably have 16 of the 32 known about once the weekend is over. Settle in, get the DVR cleared out, because there is a lot of football to watch this weekend.

World Cup playoffs and commentator eliminations

Lots to be excited about today.

There's a Japan v Ghana friendly, Lithuania v Liechtenstein and a few other real humdingers.

In other news, there are plenty of games that could decide who we will see in Brazil next summer - if only they had a playoff between Alexi Lalas and Mark Lawrenson so that we wouldn't have to see both of them talking about the World Cup. Hopefully Tommy Smyth has already been eliminated as the Faroe Islands of football announcers - it's not in the Ol' Onion Bag for you Tommy, you bell end.

The US v Mexico, Ukraine v England, Armenia v Denmark, Italy v Czech Republic - can't wait for it all to start. I'm almost as excited as this fella...